Asymptotic variance expressions for estimated frequency functions

Expressions for the variance of an estimated frequency function are necessary for many issues in model validation and experiment design. A general result is that a simple expression for this variance can be obtained asymptotically as the model order tends to infinity. This expression shows that the variance is inversely proportional to the signal-to-noise ratio frequency by frequency. Still, for low order models the actual variance may be quite different. This has also been pointed out in several recent publications. In this contribution we derive an exact expression for the variance, which is not asymptotic in the model order. This expression applies to a restricted class of models: AR-models, as well as fixed pole models with a polynomial noise model. It brings out the character of the simple approximation and the convergence rate to the limit as the model order increases. It also provides nonasymptotic lower bounds for the general case. The calculations are illustrated by numerical examples.